Learning, Expectations Formation, and the Pitfalls of Optimal Control Monetary Policy - Taylor Conference 2007 - FRB Dallas

نویسندگان

  • Athanasios Orphanides
  • John C. Williams
چکیده

This paper examines the robustness characteristics of optimal control policies derived under the assumption of rational expectations to alternative models of expectations formation. We assume that agents have imperfect knowledge about the precise structure of the economy and form expectations using a forecasting model that they continuously update based on incoming data. We find that the optimal control policy derived under the assumption of rational expectations performs relatively poorly when agents learn. We then examine to two types of simple monetary policy rules from the literature that have been found to be robust to model misspecification in other contexts. We find that these policies are robust to the alternative models of learning that we study and outperform the optimal control policy for empirically plausible parameterizations of the learning models.

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تاریخ انتشار 2007